Two Conspiracies

Two Conspiracy Theories

I’ve come across two rumors that tickle my sense of the future.

I am told that people in Greece are hoarding Euros in the form of coins. Seigniorage assures that all who hold coins will be cheated. But the scrap metal value of the coins means that they won’t be cheated entirely. If the Euro collapses they have value far above scrap paper. If the Euro doesn’t collapse those who have coins still have a liquid asset. If the banks close and steal forty per cent of their money as happened in the US and Crete, well, they have a much finer deal than those who trust banks. As for security. It is much harder to steal a thousand Euro coins than a single piece of paper printed 1000 Euros. Now what are the coin hoarders losing? Interest income? Not in this market. The Security of a bank? They are gaining privacy and independence. It doesn’t seem like the best choice. Neither does it seem like the worst. And I am not there.

Here in the USA there is an interesting phenomenon: Private drones. Small inexpensive helicopters and aircraft that can carry a few pounds and are either flown by software or radio controlled via onboard cameras and sensors. We are primarily concerned about government surveillance. They may have a range of forty miles. What I hear are rumors of small almost undetectable craft hopping over borders carrying a few pounds of white powder or government printed paper. Even heavily militarized borders are not generally forty miles deep. The borders north and south of the US are barely able to stop tourists. They are manifestly unable to stop amateur criminals. Even if the drones are stopped, they are not easily linked to either end of the flight. So the drones merely lower the risk and cost of smuggling. To negligible levels. It would be educational to see the US government try to stop a fixed-wing drone at fifteen feet flying forty miles across any border or off the coasts. This will change things.

2 comments on “Two Conspiracies

  1. Dan Granot says:

    So if economic recovery occurs, I wonder if the coin hoarding Greeks will sue the government for conspiracy to defraud them of their rightful interest by creating false market conditions…

  2. feralplum says:

    I didn’t think it clever, but interesting. I suspect the government will outlaw coins if they have to devalue. The USA has outlawed the exportation of nickles. When Germans used wheel-barrel’s full of money to by bread, or 3e9 marks for a postage stamp a pound of mark coins would have a similar melt value. In 1998 pocket change would buy you 1e6 Turkish Lira. They recovered, but at the cost of their political sanity. Golly, engineering notation shouldn’t be useful for groceries.

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